PAC Scenario


What is the PAC Scenario?

The PAC scenario was developed by CAN Europe and the EEB under the banner of the PAC project. At its core, the Scenario is an attempt to construct a European-wide energy scenario which is aligned with the Paris Agreement’s objective to limit global warming to 1.5°C and which embodies the policy demands of civil society.

The goals of PAC Scenario development are:

 1) Review the TYNDP scenarios and assumptions

The PAC project will give sustained input into the development of the TYNDP-scenarios (Ten Year Network Development Plan-scenarios). The TYNDP process guides which energy infrastructure could be needed in Europe and is a joint product of the European Networks of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and Gas (ENTSO-E and ENTSOG). For more information please visit our section on the TYNDP review.

2) Develop a Paris Agreement compatible energy scenario for Europe

The PAC project will create its own Paris compatible energy scenario. It is guided by three goals: a 65% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 and 100% renewables in Europe by 2040 in all sectors. This will be the first time such a large group of civil society organisations will form a joint vision of a desirable energy future for Europe.

3) Work with energy modellers to share knowledge and improve capacity

Scenarios have to be modelled to inform about infrastructure needs. Existing energy system planning models currently do not appropriately describe the low carbon, renewables-based energy system that is needed. The PAC project provides a space for energy modellers and others to discuss existing and new modelling approaches to better represent the complex interrelations of the future energy system.

4) Raise global awareness about the importance of grids and collaborative scenario development

While the focus of the PAC project is the European grid planning process, the underlying challenges are global. Therefore, this project will also put emphasis on sharing insights and raise awareness of the importance of grids for the energy transition and how to do collaborative scenario development.

Check out the PAC Scenario Development page linked below for a web-friendly overview of the PAC scenario, with highlights from each chapter, key graphics and download links.

You can also explore the TYNDP Review page to learn more about why TYNDPs are relevant for the PAC Scenario and what difference the PAC project can make to the TYNDP process.

The PAC scenario remains a living document. We would therefore appreciate your contributions to this collective research exercise for Europe’s energy and climate future. Feedback can be provided through the Feedback Page on this website, linked below.

Macroeconomic analysis of the PAC Scenario - coming soon