Reviewing the TYNDP scenarios
The electricity and gas TYNDPs – the Ten-Year Network Development Plans – are the only pan-European assessments of energy infrastructure projects. The revised TEN-E Regulation aims to align the energy infrastructure with the climate objectives, i.e., climate mitigation and adaptation. Furthermore, it provisions a comprehensive set of rules that govern the TYNDP process, involving directly EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) and European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), as well as public consultation for various stakeholders. The plans are completed every second year jointly by the two main European bodies for energy infrastructure, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and for Gas (ENTSOG). It encompasses among others the following categories:
The TYNDPs assess infrastructure projects in a range of possible futures, or scenarios. The scenarios are common for the electricity and gas TYNDP and rely on a number of assumptions about the future (e.g. how many electric vehicles in 2030? What will be the share of wind in electricity generation in 2040?).
The TYNDPs have a strong guiding function for decisions about future grid infrastructure investments and serves as a benchmark for candidate projects for the status of Project of Common Interest (PCI) which are identified by a European Commission-led process. Projects with the PCI label enjoy accelerated planning and streamlined permit granting processes. On top, some PCIs are entitled to financial support from the EU’s Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). Only a project which is part of the TYNDPs can become a PCI. From the perspective of project developers, national authorities and politicians, the inclusion of a project in the TYNDP serves as confirmation that a project has European relevance.
Moreover, the scenarios are often used as a starting point for other modelling exercises, by the ENTSOs and by other institutions. Scenarios have therefore a strong influence in describing and planning for the future energy sector.
Many environmental NGOs believe that the ENTSOs scenarios should plan for a 100% renewable energy supply and be aligned with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement. From this perspective it is important that the lack of energy infrastructure does not become a bottleneck for the quick growth of renewable energy sources. As well as avoiding the development of fossil gas infrastructure which could deepen Europe’s dependency and increase greenhouse gas emissions.
Following the joint development and launch of the TYNDP 2020 by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, an official consultation period was held and ended in January 2020. Here is how the individual Members of the PAC consortium have replied:
